The rare name if it is a castrated male sheep. The word bellwether (Middle English bellewether) originally referred to a Wether, who wore a bell around his neck and led the herd. Today, while shepherds can still use the term in this sense, the word is more commonly used metaphorically, meaning it serves as a guide or leading indicator of future trends. Bellwether can be a noun or an adjective. In the world of economics and finance, a “Bellwether” is a leading indicator of an economic trend. [1] [2] Scranton is a model city in an important swing state, and Obama has a lot to do there. [CBS News] An indicator is a guide or trend indicator. [1] Technology stocks fell after Hewlett-Packard, often seen as an indicator for the group, issued a disappointing revenue forecast for the current fiscal year. [Sydney Morning Herald] The state of Uttar Pradesh is also considered a pioneer, with the national government being formed mostly by the party that has won the most seats in the state. [9] The Old Dominion is now a national top flight, and the GOP looks anything but a national party. As these examples show, Bellwether is often used in financial and political contexts, but the word works elsewhere.

The Makin Division of South Australia was a pioneering division from 1984 to 2010, but ended its lead in 2013 when the Makin Labor Party remained when the coalition returned to power nationally. Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson and Makin also reversed the landmark trend of two-party preferential voting nationally in the past by voting for the Liberals in the 1998 federal election. From a purely statistical point of view, the state of New South Wales, which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a “steeple” because, until the 2016 federal election, the party that won the government won the majority of seats in that state`s House of Representatives in every election since 1963. Unlike many Bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are generally not attributed to demographics reflecting Australia`s median. Find out which words work together and create more natural English with the Oxford Collocations Dictionary app. While Sunderland South wasn`t necessarily a harbinger, it was often used in election programming to predict the momentum of a general election – mainly because it was often the first to explain – with varying results. Brad Plumer notes that Walmart sales are often an indicator of the rest of the economy. Ohio is more than just a control tower; He could decide the choice. From 1980 to 2012, for example, these flagship constituencies consistently voted within a few points of the national referendum. The U.S. states with the longest winning streaks for Electoral College winners are Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; Their stripes only date from 2008.

American model states can also be determined in different ways (in terms of presidential elections): the reality, however, is that Cuccinelli is lagging behind and Virginia is now running for the campaign. A guard will carry a whole herd after him, but I am not afraid that someone will want to hold back. In politics, the term is often used in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies in the microcosm coincide with those of a larger region, so the outcome of an election in the first region could predict the final outcome in the second. In economics, a “Bellwether” is a leading indicator of an economic trend. [1] [2] In each of these examples, the barometer or what is described by the adjective barwether is an indicator of emerging or future trends: In addition, the territory of Guam experienced no defaults from 1984 to 2012 (100.0%). Guam has no electoral votes, but holds a presidential election on the day of local elections. It`s also worth noting that Ohio was within 1.85% of the result of the national referendum from 1996 to 2012. [20] Because of the Electoral College system, a sufficiently important pioneer is often at the center of national attention and presidential campaigns as a so-called swing state, which can decide the election in one way or another. In 2016, Ohio and Florida were considered the top swing states by political pundits and national campaigns due to their large vote numbers and political volatility. No Republican has won the presidency while losing Ohio, so the results of the Ohio election are a good indicator of the success of that party`s candidate. However, it was generally accepted that without Ohio and Florida, the Democratic nominee tended to have a better chance of winning the presidency.

In 2000, the presidential election became a controversial decision in Bush v. Gore, who ultimately depended on the competition of a Florida recount, which, had it been for Gore, would have tipped the Electoral College votes. After the 2020 election, it became clear that Ohio and Florida had begun to become more Republican, and Joe Biden defeated incumbent President Donald Trump without winning either state. Arizona, which hadn`t won a Democratic nominee since 1996, and Georgia, which hadn`t won a Democratic nominee since 1992, both narrowly went to Biden, potentially replacing Ohio and Florida as major swing states. An election official can be a county, district, city, county or other district that accurately reflects how a geographic area (state, province, etc.) will vote in elections. In the United States, Bellwethers generally change every election cycle due to changes in the electorate. Bellwethers also differ in the nature of elections: a midterm Bellwether differs from a presidential Bellwether or a party primary Bellwether. [5] [6] There are three generally recognised constituencies in New Zealand: Hamilton East and Hamilton West, both based in the city of Hamilton,[10] and Northcote on the north coast of Auckland. [11] Hamilton West and Northcote have each missed an election since they were first challenged in 1969 and 1996 respectively – the 1993 election for Hamilton West and the 2005 election for Northcote. Hamilton East, which first ran in 1972, missed three elections – in 1993, 1999 and 2005. They were all held by the National Party in the 2017 election, although the Labour Party formed the government after the election.

However, with the National Party still returning to Parliament as the strongest party, both voters retained their flagship status, albeit to a limited extent. Literally, a barometer is a sheep (often with a bell) leading a flock. Unless you`re herding sheep, you probably won`t see many bellflowers saying “baaa.” This is the origin of this word, but there are many other types of barometers that are leaders in various fields. Apple was a pioneer in technology. Rosa Parks was a pioneer of civil rights. And during election season, these “model states” are those where primaries seem to predict the outcome of a party`s nomination. States that were considered pioneer states from the mid to late 20th century to early 21st century include: The word is sometimes misspelled Bellweather, perhaps in part because Bellwethers sometimes predicts time. Subscribe to America`s largest dictionary and get thousands of other definitions and an advanced search – ad-free! The 2008 election broke Missouri`s flagship streak, as no candidate has entered the White House since 1956 without supporting the state. [Politico] Nglish: Translation of the barometer for Spanish speakers “Bellwether”. Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary, Merriam-Webster, www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bellwether. Retrieved 3 October 2022.

When does a local struggle for education become a national battle? The word was first used in the 15th century in the above sense. [3] In the past, employment reports released shortly before elections were reasonable clues to the performance of the governing party, although the last employment report of the cycle is not necessarily the most reliable. Iowa was a model state in the last presidential election. A Galilean said, “When the shepherd is angry with his flock, he appoints a blind bell tower as his leader.” Use the word Bellwether to indicate someone or something leading a group or movement. Similarly, a landmark bond is “a government bond whose interest rate movements are supposed to indicate the future direction of the rest of the bond market.” [4] But now take a flock of sheep – the Bellwether is a gentle old castrate who will joke about what the shepherd wants.